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AstroCycle Analysis of 9/3/10

3已有 14001 次阅读  2010-09-06 09:46   标签Analysis  AstroCycle 
AstroCycle Analysis of 9/3/10  
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Current Forecasts
Last week I expected the SPX to peak below 1080 by Tuesday and drop to 1010, but my alternate target for a low near 1040 held and we rallied to 1100 by Labor Day as Plan B suspected.
This week I expect the SPX to make a high near 1115-20 either on Tuesday and then decline all week, or on Friday if a mid week pull back holds above 1085.
Plan B has the SPX breaking above 1120 and heading for 1130 by Friday.

4 and 6.5 day cycle lows due on Wednesday and Friday?
Since the last New Moon high of August 10th the cycles have shortened to 6.5 days and even 4 days over the last few weeks suggesting a low Wednesday and/or Friday this week and another move up into mid expiration week. Most indicators are getting overbought enough for a pull back from 1100, but the divergences seen in the bottom blue PPO line and the top Tick lines are small and the lower Put/Call lines are not that overbought yet suggesting we will probably reach the 1120-30 area this week. The bottom blue PPO is making higher highs and lows and it will probably take more than a 15-20 point pull back to change that pattern and turn the trend bearish. see chart here

The SPX must remain above 1095 to stay bullish on Tuesday
The SPX tested the 1100 area after the Jobs report as suspected and even closed above it, but the triangle in the top Tick lines suggests this trend is due for a larger pull back soon and the 4.5 day and 14 hour cycles point to weakness on Tuesday and/or possibly Wednesday. The bottom PPO and StochRSI are diverging and if we do not see a decline below 1095 on Tuesday or Wednesday, these same divergences should be enough fuel to send us to the next level of resistance near 1115-20. see chart here
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Bullish since 2010-09-01
Weekly BSI is Bullish since 2010-09-03
Long Term BSI in a Bear Market since 2008-01-04
but came close to a Bull Market in early 2010




Cycles Summary

The SPX should make a New Moon high near 1120 by Sept 10th or an Expiration high near 1160 by the 20th
The next 3.5 week cycle high is due near the New Moon of Tuesday the 8th. see chart here
  -  Highs Jun 16 (18), Jul 14, Aug 10, Sep 7th? and Lows Jul 1, Jul 29, Aug 24 and Sep 21st?
  -  A close below 1090 for now should confirm a 3.5 week cycle high.
The Moon cycles remain bullish into Friday the 10th.
see chart here
  -  First high for the Moon in Leo on Sep 3rd and second high for the Moon to Sun at 20 degrees on Sep 10th?
  -  A close below 1080 for now should confirm a New Moon high.
The next 7 week Tick cycle high is due near September 20th Expiration.
see chart here
  -  Lows May 19 (24), Jul 9 (1), Aug 26th and Highs Apr 26, Jun 14 (18), Aug 3 and Sep 21st?
  -  A weekly close below 1075 for now should confirm a 7 week cycle high.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th.
see chart here
  -  Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
  -  A weekly close above 1130 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011.
see chart here
  -  Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
  -  A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 3 year cycle low often extends into September 2010.
see chart here
  -  Lows in late Aug 98, mid Sep 01, mid Aug 04, mid Aug 07 and Aug-Sep 10?
  -  A weekly close above 1130 should confirm the 3 year Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010.
see chart here
  -  Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
  -  A weekly close above 1130 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011.
see chart here
  -  CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?


Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 in September and then probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd. see chart here
  -  Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
  -  A weekly close below 1200 should confirm the 8 week cycle high.
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th but will probably be a lower high.
see chart here
  -  Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
  -  A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
  -  A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
  -  A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012.
see chart here
  -  Lows in 1984, 92, 2000, 08 and 2016? and Highs in 1980, 88, 96, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020.
see chart here
  -  1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?


The USD should struggle towards 85 and 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here
  -  Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
  -  A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
  -  A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th.
see chart here
  -  Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
  -  A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
  -  A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
  -  A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
  -  A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.


Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 8 week cycle low is due in late September. see chart here
  -  Highs in early May, July, late August and Lows in early April, June, late July and late September?
  -  A weekly close above 135 for now should confirm the 8 week cycle low.
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October.
see chart here
  -  Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
  -  A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011.
see chart here
  -  Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
  -  A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December.
see chart here
  -  Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
  -  A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012.
see chart here
  -  Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
  -  A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
  -  A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows.
see chart here
  -  Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
  -  A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.

Wave Counting, Fractals and More


Primary and Alternate Wave Count

The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low as seen in the chart below, and we have now completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. The move from the March 09 lows can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, but I prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a perfect triangle. The strength of the rally from 1040 had the character of a Wave 3/C and that means the first wave down ended in early July and Wave C should take us to 1115 if Wave C is 62% of Wave A or 1160 if equal to Wave A, but much higher than and the bullish alternative will come into play. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and we are now in the beginning stages of a Wave 3 that will take us to test the highs near 1230 and probably make marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must get above 1160 for that to happen.



A Tale of Two Heads near Crisis levels
The September 1st low was potentially a right shoulder in a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern targeting the 1160 area, but a larger 9 month Head and Shoulder pattern has been evolving in 2010 and its right shoulder is in the same 1160 area making this area a focus for both the Bulls and the Bears. This area is in the middle of the key levels during the Lehman Crisis with the 62% level near 1,228 stopping the SPX in April and the 50% level near 1121 turning the SPX in June and August, but the other levels of 1110, 1134, 1150 and 1170 were all significant during the Credit Crisis preceding the Crash of 08.


Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next PI cycle low of early 2011.




The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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Market Breadth


Short Term Breadth is Bullish (4)

The top Ticks turned bullish but are not breaking trend by much
The lower blue Put/Call is bullish but stalling for the second time
The lower white Trin is bullish but near previous pull back levels
The PPO and StochRSI are bullish but near previous pull back levels
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The New Highs and Lows with Ratio are turned bullish but not fully breaking trend yet
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The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are bullish but overbought enough for a pull back
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The 10 and 55 day Trin are turning bullish near oversold but not breaking trend by much
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Medium Term Breadth is Bullish (5)

The Volatility is turning bullish by breaking below 23 an 20 is the next key level
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA turned bullish and could climb quite a bit
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bullish near previous lows
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The McClellans are turning bullish but the A/D lines are not breaking trend yet
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The top Trin line is turning bullish from very oversold but no lower low yet
The middle Put/Call line is turning bullish near the Bear market line
The lower Tick line is turning bullish but no higher high yet
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)

The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up again
The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Equities


The SPX must remain above 1095 to stay bullish on Tuesday
The SPX tested the 1100 area after the Jobs report as suspected and even closed above it, but the triangle in the top Tick lines suggests this trend is due for a larger pull back soon and the 4.5 day and 14 hour cycles point to weakness on Tuesday and/or possibly Wednesday. The bottom PPO and StochRSI are diverging and if we do not see a decline below 1095 on Tuesday or Wednesday, these same divergences should be enough fuel to send us to the next level of resistance near 1115-20.
See the
NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



4 and 6.5 day cycle lows due on Wednesday and Friday?
Since the last New Moon high of August 10th the cycles have shortened to 6.5 days and even 4 days over the last few weeks suggesting a low Wednesday and/or Friday this week and another move up into mid expiration week. Most indicators are getting overbought enough for a pull back from 1100, but the divergences seen in the bottom blue PPO line and the top Tick lines are small and the lower Put/Call lines are not that overbought yet suggesting we will probably reach the 1120-30 area this week. The bottom blue PPO is making higher highs and lows and it will probably take more than a 15-20 point pull back to change that pattern and turn the trend bearish.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The SPX is getting overbought near resistance for the week ending Sept 10th
The SPX tested the February lows near 1040 for the third time as suspected but that level held and launched us in a rocket move to the first real resistance near 1100 where the April trend and Expanding Wedge meets and we will probably stall like the week of July 12th, or pull back like the week of July 26th as shown by the top yellow bars. The top Tick lines and the lower blue Put/Call lines are not quite fully overbought and suggest we will probably see an expiration week high as the top yellow bars and the white Trin line pattern also suggests. The bottom blue PPO line is marginally breaking its bearish trend but we have not really seen any PPO divergences which often precedes lows and we need to exceed the August 18th level to confirm a longer change of trend higher.
See the
NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



Outlook is bullish to mixed for September
The SPX held the February-May-June lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 and rebounded to the top April channel near 1100 but the 1040 low is also a potential right shoulder of a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that targets the 1160 area by late September. However, many longer term cycle lows are due in September and October and a larger 9 month Head and Shoulders pattern that evolved in 2010 targets the 950 area by October and this rally may abort at any time in September near one of the Crisis levels of 2007 between 1121 and 1170. The top blue Tick line is not confirming this rally with a bullish break higher yet, but all indicators are turning bullish and could remain that way for weeks before being very overbought.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high as seen here , but the lows have been late or early by a week lately and the highs are not as reliable which means the August 2nd high could be delayed by a week or more before we decline towards the lower channel near 950 or worse into the Fall. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low and are testing the Bull/Bear line which should turn them back down for the many cycle lows going into 2011-12. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the
Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities


Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil/USO will probably rebound from 75/33 before testing 70/31 next
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should decline to the 50-60 area for the 11, 24 and 20 month cycle lows
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should decline to 50-60 from the 5 year cycle high of September 2010
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Currencies


The Yen is strongest since 1950 and probably still in a Bull market
The US Dollar will probably start its next 8.5 year Bull market soon
The CDN Dollar is probably ending its 8 year Bull market soon
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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发表评论 评论 (2 个评论)

  • rosepatel 2010-09-06 09:58
    哥学问真大,当初来这个坛子就是因为在别处看到哥的好闻,来这儿寻源滴。偶费九牛二雄之力,才能免强读懂,纳悶儿哥长了个啥脑袋能琢磨出这来?偶就不客气了,慢慢享用这天上掉下来的馅儿饼了,yum, yum...
  • ctcld 2010-09-07 12:54
    海老师,我能把这些图COPY到大堂吗?
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