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Friday, July 14th

1已有 625 次阅读  2017-07-15 00:26



Friday, July 14th. - Charts & Analysis are below the Quick Summary

Daily Overview Commentary:   The market is getting toppy due to selling activity while it is still about the amount of net Inflowing Liquidity (see Section 1, Chart 2).  (Everything has to go perfect today.)

Do you remember the report that I commented on last Tuesday?   Re-read the comments when you get the chance.

This is a high Caution Day where the VIX, Up volume and Selling Activity should be watched as the day progresses.

Yes, short term the market is positive, but the NYA does not have our MACD in a (medium term ) technical up trend yet so remain hedged or in cash.

FYI ... On June 7th., we suggested going go to cash in order to avoid the turmoil. 

FYI #2 (last mention) ... A book on hedging is ... Buy and Hedge: The 5 Iron Rules for Investing Over the Long Term.

Older comments:  "A crash is not out of the question, and if you have any long positions, they must be hedged as the downside risks are just too great now."   >  > > (As before, our other older comments have not changed:  "Don't think of being long in the market without properly hedging a position.   Nobody knows when, but when this does finally end ... it will end very badly.
                                   ___________________________________________

Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator trend lines were moving up again while the thick red line showed an up lower positive tick that was above the red and blue trend lines.   [The thick red line above the red and blue trend lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start and below them (both) has the potential of being serious trouble.]  > > >  *** The Options Liquidity Inflow's showed trend lines that were up trending higher (in positive territory).  The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator had a lower positive tick. This is a "potentially" Dangerous condition on the medium term.  (On this indicator, notice the amount, and/or the change on the Inflowing Liquidity.)  

Section 1, Chart 2:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick in Mid-Q1 Positive territory. - Old Comments: "Medium to Longer term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."     - - -   The indicators at the top of the chart were showing improvement while mixed.

Section 1, Chart 3:  Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying had a sideways tick and Selling had a down tick. [The Aggressives were in Accumulation while their selling was showing medium term up trending.] (They have been under pressure.) Note the indecision vacillation going on with the up and down Accumulation and Distribution movements. Vacillation represents "being at a ready position" by unsure Institutional Investors.

Section 1, Chart 4:  Institutional Investors had their Selling trend lines showing down trending.  ***.   (Observe the "in and out" vacillation that has been going on that reflects Institutional Investor uncertainty).  >  Note thatless selling is a positive and more selling is a negative. *** The top part of the chart showed an up tick to Lower-Q1 territory with divergence.

Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary: ***  The SPY, the NDX, and especially the IWM were holding in a struggling, very high stress or mixed, up condition.   - - -  Old comments: (Be in cash.), and older comments before that were: "Risk levels are very high and investors should be hedged or moved to cash."     "The IWM or the QQQ could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them.   Note:  Historically, the Super Accelerators do not support a great shorting condition while in Super Accelerator Quadrant 1 or 2 unless there is a crash situation.
                                  ____________________________________________

This is a quick overview of underlying conditions over the past 3 trading days (see the matrix below):  

1 Negative reading, 1 Lesser Negative reading, 0 Neutral Readings, 4 Positive readings, and 2 Lesser Positive readings.

Indicator

Condition and color wanted for an up condition.

Tuesday's Close 
July 11th.

Condition:

Wednesday'sClose 
July 12th.

Condition:

Thursday's Close
July 13th.

Condition:

1. Unweighted, Positive Sector Stocks above Equilibrium.

Unweighted, A majority of Unweighted Positive Strength stocks above the Equilibrium line. 

Unweighted S&P Stocks showed that 41.55% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted S&P Stocks showed that 48.35% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted S&P Stocks showed that 57.30% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

2. A comparison of the number of Very Strong and Very Weak Feeder stocks.

 

The # of Very Strong Feeder stocks higher than the the # of Very Weak Feeder stocks.

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
22 vs 167

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
31 vs 95

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
37 vs 85 (showing improvement)

3. New Highs Trender

Above 180 wanted.

93 (Above 180 wanted)

166 (Above 180 wanted)

137 (Above 180 wanted)

4. New Highs Raw Data

46 to 86 is neutral.
87 to 149 is a lesser positive;
150+ is the target.

A reading of 88

A reading of 203

A reading of 122

5. New Lows

At or Below 28 Wanted.

45 (At or Below 28.) 

17 (At or Below 28.) 

12 (At or Below 28.) 

6. Institutional Buying & Selling Action

Accumulation

Institutional Investors were "slightly" positive with down moving trend lines.  Buying had a slight down tick and Selling had a small down tick.

[The Aggressiveswere in low Accumulation.]  (They have been under pressure.) 

Note the indecision  vacillation going on with the up and down Accumulation and Distribution movements.Vacillation represents "being at a ready position" by unsure Institutional Investors.

Institutional Investors were a low+ positive on Accumulation.  Buying had an up tick and Selling had a down tick.

[The Aggressiveswere in Accumulation while their selling was showing medium term up trending.]  (They have been under pressure.) 

Note the indecision  vacillation going on with the up and down Accumulation and Distribution movements.Vacillation represents "being at a ready position" by unsure Institutional Investors.

Institutional Investors were in Accumulation.  Buying had a sideways tick and Selling had a down tick.

[The Aggressiveswere in Accumulation while their selling was showing medium term up trending.]  (They have been under pressure.) 

Note the indecision  vacillation going on with the up and down Accumulation and Distribution movements.Vacillation represents "being at a ready position" by unsure Institutional Investors.

7. Inflowing Stock Market Liquidity

Expansion Territory

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Lower-Q1 Positive territory while still challenging its "long term" up trending (it has NOT made a higher/high.)

(NOTEThis box color reflects what Quadrant the Liquidity levels are in and NOT whatthe trending is doing.)

- Old Comments: "Medium to Longer term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick to Mid-Q1 Positive territory while still challenging its "long term" up trending (it has NOT made a higher/high ... this will be a Test Day for that.)

(NOTEThis box color reflects what Quadrant the Liquidity levels are in and NOT whatthe trending is doing.)

- Old Comments: "Medium to Longer term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick in Mid-Q1 Positive territory.

(NOTEThis box color reflects what Quadrant the Liquidity levels are in and NOT whatthe trending is doing.)

- Old Comments: "Medium to Longer term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

8. Daily VIX Reading

The VIX is subject to its behavior analysis

The VIX closed at 11.89 (A Dangerpossibility still exists due to the rising fan lines.) 

This remains a high Caution to Danger "possibility".  (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX has been technically engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing on the fan lines, so be very careful".

The VIX closed at 10.30 (A dangerpossibility still exists due to the rising fan lines.) 

This remains a high caution to danger "possibility".  (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX has been technically engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing on the fan lines, so be very careful".

The VIX closed at 9.90 (A dangerpossibility still exists due to the rising fan lines.) 

This remains a high caution to danger "possibility".  (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX has been technically engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing on the fan lines, so be very careful".

Color Codes:
positiveA lesser positive
neutral 
negativeA lesser negative




>  See your Monday link for this sectional update and comments.
                                       ____________________________________________________

    Section 1. - "Money makes the World Go Round" ...
    and it also makes the Stock Market Go Round. ...

Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator trend lines were moving up again while the thick red line showed an up lower positive tick that was above the red and blue trend lines.   [The thick red line above the red and blue trend lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start and below them (both) has the potential of being serious trouble.]  > > >  *** The Options Liquidity Inflow's showed trend lines that were up trending higher (in positive territory).  The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator had a lower positive tick. This is a "potentially" Dangerous condition on the medium term.  (On this indicator, notice the amount, and/or the change on the Inflowing Liquidity.)  

 

Section 1, Chart 2:  Chart of Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...

Section 1, Chart 2:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick in Mid-Q1 Positive territory. - Old Comments: "Medium to Longer term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."     - - -   The indicators at the top of the chart were showing improvement while mixed.


Section 1, Chart 3: Institutional Buying and Selling Activity ...

Institutional Buying & Selling:   Section 1, Chart 3:  Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying had a sideways tick and Selling had a down tick. [The Aggressives were in Accumulation while their selling was showing medium term up trending.] (They have been under pressure.) Note the indecision vacillation going on with the up and down Accumulation and Distribution movements. Vacillation represents "being at a ready position" by unsure Institutional Investors.


Section 1, Chart 4: 
The Market Direction is Affected by the amount & trending of Institutional Selling
 ...

Section 1, Chart 4:  Institutional Investors had their Selling trend lines showing down trending.  ***.   (Observe the "in and out" vacillation that has been going on that reflects Institutional Investor uncertainty).  >  Note thatless selling is a positive and more selling is a negative. *** The top part of the chart showed an up tick to Lower-Q1 territory with divergence.

 


Section 2. - The Multi-Indicator and Super Accelerator Models.

Section 2, Chart 1:   The Multi-chart and readings are below: 
 
a.) The Accelerator's trend lines were positive with another up tick.  (FYI ... Do note that the medium term is in a technical down trend.)   The fast green bar was in positive territory with an up tick.
b.)  The MACD trend lines were in positive territory with an up tick on its technical down trending. The fast red bar was positive while above the red trend line and at the blue trend line. (FYI ... Do note that the medium term is in a technical down trend.)
c.)  The NYA's 9 CRSI closed at +11.36 and the 30 CRSI came in at a level of +7.50.   The 4 CRSI closed at +22.63. 
d.)  The Option's Timing Indicator trend lines were moving up again while the thick red line showed an up lower positive tick that was above the red and blue trend lines.   [The thick red line above the red and blue trend lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start and below them (both) has the potentialof being serious trouble.]   See Section 1,  Chart 1.

Conclusion:    The NYA showed a condition that was under very high stress.   What I haven't liked:  Note the (thick) red lines on the MACD-C and the NYSE's price direction which show a negative divergence.   This is avery dangerous place to be while a positive bias is trying to build.  


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Before we go to the Super Accelerator charts, here is the legend for the C-RSI levels and below that are the C-RSI level readings for the past 5 days. 
(Note: If there are any Black cells, they indicate that an ETF is in a Super Accelerator Sell condition.)  
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Section 2, Chart 2:  ** The S&P (SPY) Super Accelerator ... 
The SPY's Super Accelerator showed technical up trending in Mid-Q1 territory. The SPY's S.T. Accelerator trend lines showed an up tick to Mid-Q1 territory with convergence. The CRSI was at a Positive level of +7.20.   All together the SPY was still in a very high risk up condition that still requires hedging for any aggressive (high risk) investor because the medium term trending was not up trending yet.  (Older comments: Hedging (or moving to cash) was necessary on any long positions and that a "potentially" high Danger condition exists.


  _________________________________________

Section 2, Chart 3:  The NASDAQ 100 Super Accelerator ... 
The NDX's Super Accelerator trend lines showed trend lines in low Q1 positive territory.   The S.T. Accelerator showed up trending in Mid-Q2 territory.  The C-RSI showed a positive level of +6.22.  This is a potentially dangerous level on the "Medium term" so remain hedged..

_______________________________

Section 2, Chart 4:  *** The Russell 2000 Super Accelerator ... 
The IWM's Super Accelerator's trend lines showed that they were in Mid-Q1 positive territory with an up tick and showing technical down trending.   The S.T. Accelerator showed a down tick in Mid-Q1 that was still up trending. The CRSI tick was at a Caution-positive level of +4.35 while under medium term stress.    Overall, the Russell 2000 (IWM) was in an up condition while under very high stress.   Older comments: "The IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on it.".   


Super Accelerator Model Synopsis for the above charts:   

Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary: ***  The SPY, the NDX, and especially the IWM were holding in a struggling, very high stress or mixed, up condition.   - - -  Old comments: (Be in cash.), and older comments before that were: "Risk levels are very high and investors should be hedged or moved to cash."     "The IWM or the QQQ could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them.   Note:  Historically, the Super Accelerators do not support a great shorting condition while in Super Accelerator Quadrant 1 or 2 unless there is a crash situation.

Section 3. - The Volatility Index (VIX) 

Section 3, Chart 1:   The VIX closed at 9.90 (A danger possibility still exists due to the rising fan lines.)  This remains a high caution to danger "possibility". (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX has been technically engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing on the fan lines, so be very careful".


A close up of the VIX's action ...


Section 4. - These Charts updated on Monday ...

*** Charts in this section are updated only once per week on MONDAY morning.  This includes the Monthly Bull Market chart, the Banking Index, the Dollar, 
and yields on 10 and 30 year Bonds.

Section 4, Chart 1:  Index Comparisons.    (See above note.)  [Chart Background:  Institutional Investor holdings represent over 50% of the market's investment in equities.   As an index, Institutional Index movements track better than any other indicator as the market's movement and direction.

Section 4, Chart 1: The Institutional Index, the NYA, the SPY, the NDX, and the IWM, were above their black horizontal resistance lines  (The IWM and the NDX were showing very high risk signs.)

Section 4, Chart 2:  The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...

Tuesday, July 10th.  ALERT ... This is a very HIGH DANGER CONDITION that is trying to build strength ... Risk Levels are dangerously high with this long term model saying that we are at an early stage of entering a Bear market soon (which could also be a crash) with current mixed conditions.  As with these particular market conditions there will be short term up moves while trending downward on the longer term.   This pre-Bear market condition is a bit different than the past ones in that the Fed will do all it can do to keep the market from crashing while hoping that the economy will turn have a solid turn around before a bad down move occurs.  If you are a long term player, you should not be in any long positions unless you are playing them on the very short term, know how to hedge, and/or play intra-day conditions.   The Bull is terminally ill and only the nursing Fed is keeping it in a life sustaining condition.  - -  The MACD Histogram was at a low positive level of +0.58.   The C-RSI came in at a positive level of +23.88.    (Old comments: FYI ... don't forget that this is a "monthly" chart and that this is only a "weekly look" at the progress or changes in a "monthly" chart which will next technically will end on the last trading day of this month.  [Realize that this particular chart will adjust AFTER a down move as this chart is reflective as opposed to predictive. I do not like the negative divergence coming from the MACD Histogram to the Price indicator.]

Section 4, Chart 3:  ...  The Banking Index (Symbol: $BKX)

Section 5, Chart 1:  The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 97.13 with the 30 day C-RSI at +9.80.    The Accelerator was strong with a down tick.  The Timing Indicator was higher positive and it gained strength.  The Banking Index was in a High Risk condition, so high caution is in order.   Older comments: Please note that risk levels are very high and at a place where Danger lurks, so please hedge any long positions or consider being in cash for the long term.


Section 4, Chart 4:   Below is the Banking Index's Point & Figure, long term chart.  Take a look at this Point & Figure chart ... I don't like the parabolic up movements because they normally end by coming down hard when they do end.

Section 4, Chart 5:  The U.S. Dollar ... Daily Chart 

The Dollar closed at 96.008.  The RSI was at a Danger level of 39.67.   (50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.)   The Dollar was seeing high stress while sitting on a support line which opens the possibility of moving up.   On the short term there is a lot of stress.  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   


Section 4, Chart 6:  The U.S. Dollar ... Longer Term ... 

For perspective, this is the (Weekly) Longer Term chart of the Dollar.  Notice the "consolidation" that has been going on.   Do note the red Fan Line I drew (up high) on this chart.  The red fan line and thick red support line is in the process of being tested.

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Section 4, Chart 7A:  10 Year Bond Yields.

10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 23.93 with short term up movement and a mixed condition.  (The 24.07 resistance level is under test now.)  Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 


Section 4, Chart 7B:  10 Year, Weekly Bond Yields. 

This is a weekly chart of the 10 Year bond yields.   (The 24.07 resistance level is under test now.)


Section 4, Chart 8A:  30 Year bond yields (TYX)  The TYX closed at 29.35.   Its Accelerator was positive with an up move.  Stress levels are high.  Note that something else could be going on with yields with some countries showing deflation.  (During March 2017, Indonesia had a .02 percent deflation rate and Georgia hada .5 percent rate of deflation.  Saudi Arabia had deflation of .4% in February ... the first experienced in more than a decade.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. Note for November 14th.: A weekly "test" of the deflationary possibility could arrive fairly soon.  >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

Section 4, Chart 8B:   30 Year, Weekly Bond Yields.
This is the TYX's weekly chart. The yields have a downside bias on this weekly chart.


Section 4, Chart 8C:  30 Year Yields, Point & Figure Chart.

Below, is the 24 year Point & Figure chart showing the 20+ year down sloping resistance line for 30 year bonds yields (TYX).    Note the TYX now has a Point & Figure resistance at 34.5 and a support at 25.02.   There is still a lot of work to do in order to start a new long term up trend on 30 year interest rates. 

Time to start paying attention to this long term chart, as things are starting to heat up.

Historical comments:  ... Something is slowly going on here.   **Do not under-estimate the importance of such an event.  It will be a "game changer" that causes market pressure on the economy along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts. 

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